MVRV-Z, Puell and SOPR feed the Cycle Heat score. NUPL and Reserve Risk are shown for reference but kept out of the blend: their correlation with MVRV-Z is 0.93 and 0.96, so weighting them would double-count the same valuation signal.
Buy signals are graded, not fired every day: small mark = strong buy (deep value, Mayer < 0.8), large mark = extreme buy (price below the 200-week MA, a generational bottom). The faint indigo band is the soft accumulation regime; grey marks the top-risk zone. Same rules across all history, nothing fitted.
scroll = zoom · swipe sideways / drag / use the bar = pan · double-click = reset
If you had accumulated a fixed sum by the tool's bottom signals over a period, instead of one buy: how much BTC, at what average price, and what it would be worth at the cycle peak and at the realistic sell signal, against HODL and naive DCA.
Same strategy, same budget, each cycle. Strategy vs HODL (one lump buy) vs naive weekly DCA. Realistic basis: sold at the model's sell signal, net of fees.
| cycle | strategy avg | HODL avg | DCA avg | MOIC (peak) | MOIC (sell) | vs HODL | vs DCA | exit |
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- Bottom signals are trustworthy; top signals are not. The continuous top-risk score cleanly flagged the 2017 (~81) and 2021 (~99) tops, but the 2025 ETF-era top was a slow grind, not a blow-off, so every free signal under-read it (top-risk peaked at ~50, Pi-Cycle never crossed). That top is genuinely uncatchable on free data. Treat the "sell" column as realistic and "peak" as an unreachable ceiling.
- Nothing is fitted. One fixed rule runs identically across 2013–today. The buy ribbon appears at every cycle bottom because the rule reacts to price, not because it was tuned per cycle.
- Small sample. Only 3-4 cycles exist. Past edge over DCA is suggestive, not a guarantee.
- Free data: price from Coin Metrics, Fear & Greed from alternative.me, on-chain (MVRV-Z) from BGeometrics. On-chain enrichment covers the recent cycle only.
Where the big money sits. Stablecoin supply is the capital tide: rising = fresh fiat parked on-chain (inflow), falling = redemptions (outflow). Coinbase premium is US/institutional bid pressure: Coinbase USD vs Binance USDT, positive = US bid, negative = offshore-led. Both free, history to 2017/2018.